Mantic

Mantic is a London-based AI system that produces probabilistic forecasts of political, economic, and cultural events, aimed at decision-makers who need to allocate resources under uncertainty. The way Mantic works is by specializing frontier AI models from other labs to be better at forecasting. It tests its predictive system on historical data, grades its performance, then improves it. Users can build dashboards around the questions they care about, such as tracking the AI supply chain or export controls, and receive alerts when the model's probability estimates shift. This launch marks Mantic's public push after a headline result and a fresh round of capital. The company's forecasting system beat every human competitor in the summer 2026 Metaculus Cup, giving the young company a striking proof point for its claim of superhuman judgmental forecasting. The $25 million seed was led by Radical Ventures, with Microsoft's M12 joining in , and early traction has skewed toward finance and policy buyers, with the company developing predictive models for political and economic events, targeting interest from hedge funds and government agencies as it moves toward commercial expansion . Mantic was founded by former Google DeepMind researcher Toby Shevlane and Ben Day, who holds a machine learning PhD from Cambridge University . Shevlane previously worked as a research scientist at Google DeepMind, while Day has a background in machine learning research and previously served as Head of Research at Foresight Data Machines. The pitch to operators and investors skimming this launch is concrete: a research team optimizing for a single metric, forecast accuracy, applied to questions that prediction markets tend not to cover.